TURKISH
CYPRIOT AND TURKISH MEDIA REVIEW
C
O N T E N T S
No. 206/15 30.10.2015
1.
Akinci: The solution of the Cyprus problem will facilitate Turkey’s
international relations and help reaching its big global targets
2.
Erdogan: “The water from Turkey can be water for peace”
3.
UBP’s election congress to be held on Saturday and Sunday
4.
Turkey marks the Republic Day with absence of military displays
5.
Turkey’s national day was celebrated with a military parade only in the
occupied area of Cyprus
6.
Commentary: “AKP-MHP highway to determine poll outcome”
7.
Increase in voter turnout expected in Turkey’s Nov 1 snap elections
8.
New rumours on the establishment of a new formation by Gul and opponents within
the AKP party
1. Akinci:
The solution of the Cyprus problem will facilitate Turkey’s international
relations and help reaching its big global targets
Turkish Cypriot daily Kibris newspaper
(30.10.15) reports that Turkish Cypriot leader Mustafa Akinci has argued that a peaceful, modern, European and
world-citizen Cyprus will facilitate Turkey’s international relations and
definitely help it in reaching its “big global targets”.
Addressing
yesterday the military parade in the occupied part of Nicosia on the occasion
of the 92nd anniversary from the establishment of the Republic of
Turkey, Akinci argued that the Turkish Cypriots, as a community which has
internalized Ataturk’s “peace in the country, peace in the world” principle,
are exerting efforts for laying the foundations of a just and lasting peace in
Cyprus.
Akinci expressed the belief that a new
bi-zonal, bi-communal united federal structure based on the political equality
of the two founding states will benefit not only the island but the region as
well.
Akinci alleged that Turkey has contributed
a lot to the efforts for finding a solution in Cyprus until today and expressed
the belief that this contribution will continue.
Akinci
further argued that Turkey has become one of the most important countries of
the region thanks to “its deep historic roots and the modern principles on
which it is based”.
Referring to the relations of the Turkish
Cypriots with Turkey, Akinci said that there is no need to say how important
Turkey is for the Turkish Cypriots and noted that the Turkish Cypriots are
nourished “from the historic and cultural veins of the close, warm and sincere
feelings’ they have towards Turkey. He added that every good development in
Turkey gives them Joy and every bad development saddens them deeply.
(I/Ts.)
2. Erdogan: “The water from Turkey can be a water for peace”
Turkish
Cypriot daily Havadis newspaper (30.10.15) reports that Turkish President
Tayyip Erdogan speaking on a TV program responded to questions regarding the
water pipeline project.
Erdogan stated that if the Greek Cypriot side faces difficulties
with water at one point, then the water brought from Turkey can be offered to
them. “The water from Turkey can be a water for peace”, he said. However,
he claimed that as it was expected the Greek Cypriot side rejected the offer.
Reminding
that the massive project had cost 1 billion 600 million lira to construct, the
Turkish President said that the breakaway regime will have potable water as
well as water to use for agriculture because of this project.
(CS)
3. UBP’s election congress to be held on Saturday and Sunday
Turkish
Cypriot daily Kibris newspaper (30.10.15) reports that the election congress of the National Unity Party (UBP) will take place
in two days on Saturday, October 31 and on Sunday, November 1.
According
to the paper, on Saturday the seven candidates who are running for the position
of the party’s leadership will deliver their speeches. The voting will be held on Sunday. In case no candidate succeeds to
be elected from the first round, the two persons who will receive the most
votes will run for a second round.
Allowed to
vote will be the persons who hold an UBP-member card. The members of the
general committee of UBP will also be elected during the congress.
(CS)
4. Turkey
marks the Republic Day with absence of military displays
According to Turkish daily Sabah (online,
29.10.15), Turkey marked the 92nd
anniversary of Republic Day on Thursday with landmark ceremonies where pompous
displays of military power common in military regimes were largely absent and
students were spared from performing excruciating routines.
Low-key was the keyword in Thursday's
ceremonies to mark the 92nd anniversary of the Republic Day, the day that the
country was founded by a group of military officers who helped the country win
its independence following a brutal war.
In
line with President RecepTayyip Erdogan and the government's efforts to keep
ceremonies more accessible to the public and nowhere near a show of military
might as is the case in some countries such as North Korea, ceremonies were the
scene of unprecedented changes.
For the first time in the brief history of the
Republic of Turkey, tanks and artillery were absent from a parade at the heart
of celebrations in capital Ankara, although soldiers, a staple of the
ceremonies, were still present, but in smaller numbers.
Another landmark change was the absence of
students from elementary, middle and high schools who were forced to parade and
perform dances as well as stand for hours in the rain or under the sun in past
events. Instead, professional dancers performed at events in Ankara.
A notable absence from the ceremonies were
leaders from opposition parties, except for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, chairman of
Republican People's Party (CHP), which was founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,
who also founded the Republic.
This
year's ceremony was held with more music, and included the Presidential
Symphony Orchestra taking part for the first time. Their performance of local
and foreign pieces was followed by an Ottoman military band, which was never
included in ceremonies in the past as it was associated with the predecessor to
the Republic, the Ottoman Empire.
Parades, central to the day's celebrations,
were attended by police officers, search and rescue teams and people from other
emergency services. Foreign students in Turkey also attended the ceremonies,
bearing their countries' flags.
Addressing the crowd that had gathered,
Erdogan said that Turkey was determined to overcome challenges and threats
against the state "crowned with the Republic and founded after a historic
struggle for independence."
Erdogan, who strives for more public access
to the presidency and government, had hosted an unusual reception at the
Presidential Palace on Wednesday on the occasion of the Republic Day. He hosted
people from all walks of life at the compound instead of the usual crowd of
elites.
He
said Turkey's struggle to reach "the level of modern civilizations" –
an ambition of Ataturk – was still continuing, and Turkey recently became a
rising star in the world. "Today our country is the hope of oppressed
people," Erdoğan said, pointing to Turkey's expanding role in the
international community under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AK
Party) of which he is a founder. He also highlighted the struggle to reach the
party's 2023 goals, a set of projects for economic and social development, and
said that on the 100th anniversary of the Republic these projects will
"absolutely" be achieved.
5. Turkey’s
national day was celebrated with a military parade only in the occupied area of
Cyprus
Turkish Cypriot daily Afrika newspaper
(30.10.15) reports that the 92nd
anniversary from the establishment of the Republic of Turkey was celebrated
yesterday in the occupied area of the Republic of Cyprus and the military
parade sealed again these celebrations.
The paper notes:“[..]Even the fascist AKP government in Turkey abandoned holding a military
parade! Of course this is not because they are in favor of demilitarization
[of the political life], but because they do not love Ataturk. How about you?
Are you necessarily going to prove that you support Ataturk with these
demonstrations? […]”
(I/Ts.)
6. Commentary:
“AKP-MHP highway to determine poll outcome”
Columnist Murat Yetkin, writing in Turkish
daily Hurriyet Daily News (online, 30.10.15), believes that it is the direction
and density of traffic on the AKP-MHP highway that will end up having the
biggest effect on the outcome of the elections in the following commentary:
“Research companies have been revealing the
results of their opinion polls just a few days ahead of Turkey’s Nov. 1
re-election.
All except
one predict that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) will be around the
42-43% band, plus or minus 2 points. The
outlier comes from A&G, whose chairman AdilGur has claimed that the AKP
could win 47.5% of votes and thus regain the majority it lost on June 7 by a
clear margin, re-establishing single-party rule. If that turns out to be true,
it would mean a rise in AKP votes of almost 7% in just five months.
None of the
polls predict a drop in the votes of the social democratic opposition
Republican People’s Party (CHP), which won 24.8% in June. They now
show the CHP in the 26-28% band, despite
an estimated 2-3% of potential CHP voters (out of the whole electorate) who are
likely to vote for the Kurdish problem-focused Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP),
especially in big western cities, in
order not to let the HDP drop below the 10% threshold. If the HDP does not
pass the threshold it will not be able to enter parliament, which will mean
almost certain victory for the AKP and President Tayyip Erdogan due to a
complicated calculation method determining the number of seats won.
Both President Erdogan and Prime Minister
AhmetDavutoğlu hoped that a resumption of terror acts by the outlawed Kurdistan
Workers’ Party (PKK) could make Kurdish voters regret voting for the HDP, thus
returning some of them back to the AKP and pushing the HDP below the threshold.
But this seems unlikely. None of the
polls show the HDP below 10% and some even show it above the 13.4% it received
in June.
No polls
show the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) above the 16.3% it won in June, and
it is estimated to be in the 13-14% band by most.
MHP leader
DevletBahceli’s main disadvantage is the “Mr No” perception he has among MHP
voters and others. In
contrast to Bahceli, CHP head Kemal Kilicdaroglu was open to almost all
formulas suggested by Prime Minister Davutoglu after the inconclusive June 7
vote. Bahceli also turned down proposals from Kilicdaroglu, on the grounds that
he did not want to be in the same picture as the HDP.
Bahceli thought the resumption of PKK
attacks and the government’s striking back, (shelving the peace process), could
be to the advantage of the MHP, proving what his party has been saying for
years and luring votes from the AKP to the MHP. It is true that there is transaction between the MHP and the AKP in
terms of Turkish nationalist votes: Turkey’s Ottoman past means that Islamist
and Turkish nationalist ideologies are not totally separable.
The AKP
also has a similar transaction with the HDP in terms of pious Kurdish votes. But
developments in recent months, including the worst terrorist act in Turkish
history, committed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which
killed at least 102 people on Oct. 10 in Ankara, have antagonized the situation
and blocked the traffic flow from the HDP to the AKP.
These transactions, or “voter channels”
between the parties, are not one-way anyway. Rather, they are like two-way
highways. The opinion polls fail to measure the true density or direction of
traffic between the AKP and the MHP. It could well turn out to be a failure for
either the MHP or the AKP on Nov. 1. Still, the MHP has the particular
disadvantage of TugrulTurkes, Bahceli’s former deputy, crossing to join the AKP
to become Davutoglu’s Deputy Prime Minister. So there is a probability that
more MHP votes will flow to the AKP than vice versa.
Whatever the result on Nov. 1, it seems
that it is the direction and density of traffic on the AKP-MHP highway that
will end up having the biggest effect on the outcome.”
7. Increase
in voter turnout expected in Turkey’s Nov 1 snap elections
According to Turkish daily Hurriyet Daily
News (online, 30.10.15), Turkey’s voters are expected to head to polling
stations on Nov. 1 in even greater numbers than the June 7 elections in a
development that could be advantageous for all parties, according to survey
companies.
OzerSencar, the chairman of the pollster
Metropoll, said that they expected the turnout to be between 84% and 86%, while
underlining that the choices of around 2 million university students would play
a decisive role after Oct. 30, the day after the Republic Day, which is an
official holiday, was also declared an administrative holiday by the
government. The selection of Nov. 1 as a poll day raised question marks as to
whether some civil servants and university students living in cities other than
their hometowns might plan to extend their one-day official Republic Day
holiday to head home to vote.
Sencar also anticipated that some Kurdish
voters living in eastern and south-eastern Anatolia might not cast their votes
either because they were forced to leave their hometowns due to the ongoing
conflict between security forces and the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) or because of an environment of pressure. According to the latest survey by Metropoll, 85.8% of voters are
expected to cast ballots on Nov. 1.
TarhanErdem, the founder of the KONDA
research company, agreed that the voter turnout would increase in the critical
election. “All sides have been feeling ambitious, with both the ruling party
and the opposition parties struggling to win. The share of votes by all parties
will be preserved,” Erdem said.
BekirAgirdir,
general manager of KONDA, said that they expected a 91% turnout, confirming
that the increase in the turnout would have an equal impact on the share of
parties.
The results of the last four elections held
in Turkey display a gradual increase in voter turnout. According to figures by
the Supreme Election Board (YSK), 32,768,161 of 41,407,027 eligible voters cast
their votes in the Nov. 3, 2002, parliamentary elections. The turnout was
79.14% with 31,528,378 valid votes.
In the July 22, 2007, parliamentary
elections, 36,056,293 of 42,799,303 eligible voters cast their votes. The
figure represented a turnout of 84% with 35,049,691 valid votes.
In the June 12, 2011, parliamentary
elections, 43,914,763 of 52,806,322 eligible voters cast their votes. The
turnout was 83.16% with 42,941,763 valid votes.
As for the June 7 elections, 47,507,467 of
56,608,817 eligible voters cast their votes, good for a turnout of 83.92% with
46,163,243 valid votes.
Nonetheless, there was a crucial difference
in the June 7 elections as expat voters were able to cast their votes in a
parliamentary election at polling stations placed in diplomatic locations
around the world, not just at customs gates. When expat votes are ignored, the
turnout was 86.43%, as only 32.5% of eligible expat voters cast their votes in
the June 7 election. The number of new eligible voters reached over 1,270,000
for the Nov. 1 elections, while it was 1,041,000 for the June 7 polls. This
increase is expected to be reflected in the overall turnout.
All political parties have expressed hope
about the outcome of the Nov. 1 vote, as they all expect an increase in their
vote share.
Mustafa Atas, the executive in charge of
the party’s organization for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the
caretaker of the interim government, believes that there is a seasonal
advantage when compared to the June 7 vote.
“Citizens are already located where they
are registered as voters. We haven’t exerted a special effort for increasing
participation,” Atas said, while noting that they had instructed local branches
to make necessary arrangements, such as facilitating transportation, for voters
who want to vote but are outside of their provinces at the moment.
The deputy chair of the Republican People’s
Party (CHP), HalukKoc, expressed hope of a higher turnout, citing how crucial
the Nov. 1 vote is for the future of the country. “Those who ignore their duty
to cast votes will not have the right to complain about any negative situation
that could emerge after the elections. The voters will decide with what kind of
an understanding the country will be ruled,” Koc said.
The Nationalist Movement Party’s (MHP)
deputy chair, SemihYalcin, also believes that the voters will manifest their
will in the ballot boxes. “We believe that the voters will question who is
taking them to ballot boxes again and that they will bury those who didn’t like
the nation’s declaration of will on June 7 in those boxes,” Yalcin said.
The spokesperson of the Peoples’ Democratic
Party (HDP), AyhanBilgen, said they did not expect a decrease in the turnout,
although he acknowledged that there might be “weariness and fatigue” among
voters for having to go to an election just five months after the latest one.
“On the other side, we believe that they
would like to have their will for conciliation and a coalition displayed
through the casting of their votes. The participation of seasonal workers will
also increase in the autumn,” Bilgen said, noting that he did not expect the
extended official holiday to have a negative impact on the turnout.
“The curfews declared during campaigning
[in eastern and the southeastern Anatolia] were aimed at decreasing the
turnout. The presence of many security forces at polling stations on voting day
will also be psychologically irritating and will have a deterrent impact,” he
said.
8.New
rumours on the establishment of a new formation by Gul and opponents within the
AKP party
Turkish daily Cumhuriyet newspaper
(28.10.15) reported that supporters of
the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which belong to the opposition
wing of the party and are close to former President Abdullah Gul, speak
strongly about the rising of a new formation, in case that the climate of
tension and polarization continues in Turkey and in case that Erdogan would
continue with the same governance approach after the November 1st
election result.
According to the paper, the opponents within the AKP underlined the
instability which exists inside the party due to Erdogan’s intervention.
Meanwhile, the paper underlines that despite that Gul did not seem to be very wilful
to return to politics, during the last 20 days, he adopted a warmer attitude
towards the establishment of a new formation, taking into consideration the
current conditions.
(AK)
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TURKISH
AFFAIRS SECTION
(DPs/ AM)
