TURKISH
CYPRIOT AND TURKISH MEDIA REVIEW
C
O N T E N T S
No.
127/13
09/07/2013
1.
“Presidency” notes that the reference in the UN draft report “any
new-found wealth belongs to all Cypriots” is positive
2.
A fortune is spent by Turkish political parties
for the “election campaign”
3. Turkish Foreign
Ministry condemns Egyptian Army shooting of protesters
4.The Cost of the coup
in Egypt to the (AKP) government
5. Gezi Park closed to
public only hours after official opening
6. Converse election
scenarios in Ankara
1.
“Presidency”
notes that the reference in the UN draft report “any new-found
wealth belongs to all Cypriots” is positive
Turkish
Cypriot daily Kibris (09.07.13), under the title “There are wrong
approaches”, reports that the so-called presidency in the occupied
area of the Republic of Cyprus evaluated the latest draft report by
the UN Secretary-General regarding the activities of the United
Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) from 16 December 2012
to 20 June 2013.
The
so-called presidency notes that the report is seen to be penned
trying to keep a balance, but it includes a set of mistaken
approaches and facts besides the positive and negative facts, adding
that the initiatives to correct them continue.
The
paper reports that according to the “presidency”, they got a
draft report of the activities of the UNFICYP and the Security
Council will take a decision on this issue, which will be published
as an official report in the coming days.
Moreover,
the “presidency” repeated that at the first glimpse the draft
report is carefully worded, adding that the draft report includes
some paragraphs on the UNSG good offices mission, the dinner which
held on 30 of May between the two leaders, the developments of the
Technical Committees and the work regarding the restoration of
Apostolos Andreas Monastery in occupied Karpassia.
However,
the “presidency” argues that the positive developments regarding
the dinner of the leaders and the restoration work of Apostolos
Andreas Monastery, which were reportedly as a result of the proactive
policy and the initiatives that the Turkish Cypriot side has
followed, are not clearly represented in the report. The “presidency”
also claims that the developments in the work of the Technical
Committees, mentioned in the draft report, are a result of the
flexible and constructive stance that the Turkish Cypriot side has
followed on the issue.
Furthermore,
the “presidency” notes that the reference on the report that the
discovery of offshore gas reserves is the mutual wealth of both
communities in Cyprus and will also involve a deeper cooperation on
the issue, is positive.
2.
A
fortune is spent by Turkish political parties for the “election
campaign”
Under
the title “A fortune for the elections”, Turkish Cypriot daily
Halkin Sesi newspaper (09.07.13) reports that with the exception of
the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), the other Turkish political
parties in the breakaway regime are spending a fortune for their
“election campaigns” for the forthcoming 28 July “parliamentary
elections”.
The
paper notes that the four parties will spend 2.510.000 Turkish Lira
for their campaigns while the amount of money that the four
independent “candidates” will spend will reach 20.000 Turkish
Lira.
The
paper writes that the election campaign budget of the Democratic
Party –National Forces is reaching a record and is going to total
1.500.000 Turkish Lira and notes that each individual “MP
candidate” will spend 30.000 for his campaign. The National Unity
Party (UBP) is spending 1.000.000 TL and the candidate will spend
12.000 each. The Communal Democratic Party (TDP) has a budget of
500.000 TL. As regards the CTP, it stated that the party will
announce its ‘election campaign” budget after the “elections”.
3.
Turkish Foreign Ministry condemns Egyptian Army shooting of
protesters
Ankara
Anatolia
news agency (08.07.13) reported that Turkey's Ministry of Foreign
Affairs said that people who staged a sit in to return democratic
governance in Egypt were fired upon and over 50 people were killed as
well as 500 others were wounded in front of the Republican Guards
Headquarters of Cairo in Egypt.
The
ministry stated that it strongly condemned the attack in the name of
basic humanitarian values and added that «the attack which targeted
people as a whole can be seen as an event which may cause vitally
serious developments in Egypt. "We call on the International
community to take the side of democracy and support the Egyptian
people while they fight for democracy," said the ministry.
Regarding
allegations about evacuation of Turkish citizens from Egypt, an
official with the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that
"there is no decision taken for such an action."
In
addition, Ankara
Anatolia news agency (08.07.13) also reports that Turkey's Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu discussed the recent developments in Egypt
with a number of his counterparts over the phone on Sunday and
Monday.
Davutoglu
discussed the steps taken to return to democracy again in Egypt on
the phone with Sweden, Norway, Finland, Lithuania, Poland,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Brazil, the High Representative of
the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton,
Qatar and Morocco.
According to diplomatic
sources, Davutoglu's telephone diplomacy on Egypt has been
continuing.
Under
the above title, Turkish daily Milliyet
(08.07.13) publishes the following article by Kadri Gursel:
“Our
ruling Islamists first established a fictitious link between Gezi
Park and Tahrir 2. Now, it seems that they want to supposedly express
their solidarity with the victimhood of the Muslim Brotherhood
government that was ousted by a coup in Egypt. They intend to convert
this "solidarity" into legitimacy for crushing the
opposition of civil society in Turkey even more. However, it will be
impossible to do this.
I
am not saying that "it is impossible to crush civil society."
I am saying that it is impossible to invent a basis of legitimacy for
it or to
make the world believe this.
In
any event, any insistence on policies of repression that were amply
proven wrong when these led to a social explosion on 31 May and
caused instability would not serve any purpose other than creating
even more instability.
The
predicament of our ruling circles reminds me of one of the aphorisms
of great American humorist and actor Will Rogers: "If you find
yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Unfortunately,
this is precisely what the government is doing today. The government
found itself in a hole it dug itself because of ominous policies.
Now, instead of thinking about how it can get out of it, it keeps
digging.
As they continue digging,
let us think about the real consequences of the coup in Egypt for an
AKP-led Turkey.
The
losses are large and even strategic. The Muslim Brotherhood [Ikhwan]
government in Egypt was the strategic partner of an AKP-led Turkey in
terms of economic and political ties. An Ikhwan-led Egypt was the
sine qua non of the "new Middle East order" or the "new
Islamic world" for which Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has
claimed leadership and authority.
Our
visionaries will obviously not be able to build the new regional
order with their only remaining ally HAMAS in an eastern
Mediterranean basin where Syria's Bashar al-Asad cannot be ousted. At
this point, with the Ikhwan ousted in Egypt, it is not even worth
discussing the An Nahda-led unobtrusive Tunisia.
Another
important aspect of Ikhwan for the vision of the AKP was that Egypt
allowed [Turkey] to exercise soft power. We know that the AKP wanted
to transfer to the Ikhwan its knowledge and experience in
organizational and campaigning techniques in democratic processes and
to activate the "AKP model" in Egypt. However, that Ikhwan
government is no more. Consequently, the AKP has much less room to
exercise soft power now.
The
"soft power" that was exercised through financial
assistance was evidence of the scale of importance Ankara attached to
the Ikhwan-led Egypt. Last October, when Egypt was struggling to
secure a loan of $4.8 billion from the IMF, Ankara extended Cairo a
five-year $1 billion loan, with no payments for three years. That was
a large sum for both countries. Now, that $1 billion will not pay the
expected political dividends.
Entrepreneurs
from Turkey have investments and businesses amounting to billions of
dollars in Egypt. Egypt is a very
big and important country. Ankara must be careful not to break its
ties with Cairo so as to ensure that Turkey's material interests are
not harmed. In the meantime, Ankara rightly called the coup a "coup"
and criticized Western capitals for not calling the coup by its name.
In
other words, Ankara is now obligated to do business with the coup
government in Egypt. This is likely to cause additional "loss of
moral ground. "Apparently, in terms of realpolitik, there is not
much difference between calling and not calling a coup a "coup."
Finally,
from Prime Minister Erdogan's perspective, the most concrete and
immediate loss caused by the coup in Egypt is that he will not be
able to visit Gaza for an indeterminate period. The Prime Minister
has not been able to set the country's agenda since the "Gezi
eruption." He appears to be stuck in a reactive position. An
initiative in Gaza for domestic consumption purposes was seen as a
potential exit from this downward spiral. Now another way has to be
found.
We
would have had neither the Gezi Park episode nor Tahrir 2 if the
Ikhwan had heeded Erdogan's advice to adopt secularism and if the
Prime Minister had stuck to his own advice.”
5.
Gezi Park closed to public only hours after official opening
Turkish
daily Hurriyet
(09.07.13) reports that Taksim Gezi Park, which has become the heart
of the anti-government movement sweeping the nation, was briefly
opened to public use yesterday before access to the park was blocked
again by police officers three hours later.
The
decision to block access to the park came amid a call from the Taksim
Solidarity Platform inviting protesters to the park for 7 p.m. The
park was opened earlier with a small ceremony attended by Istanbul
Governor Huseyin Avni Mutlu, Mayor Kadir Topbas and other local
officials.
6.
Converse election scenarios in Ankara
Under
the above title, Turkish daily Hurriyet newspaper 907.07.13)
publishes
the following article by Goksel Bozkurt:
“The slowing down of the resolution process following the Gezi Park incidents and recently the news about the military coup in Egypt has deeply affected political scenarios for 2014. These unpredicted domestic and international developments have brought contrary election scenarios. In deep discussions in the capital city, two converse scenarios are being whispered. These are converse because both of them make previous expectations vain and both have setups that would turn the routine calendar for the 2014 period upside down.
The
first of the scenarios envisions that three ballots are set up in
August 2014. The local elections scheduled for March 2014 and the
presidential election in June 2015 will be rescheduled for August
2014. There is no constitutional obstacle to that happening. There is
a constitutional clause that says local elections are to be held
every five years, but another paragraph allows the simultaneous
holding of three elections.
The
127th article of the Constitution, regulating local administrations,
has a clause that says: "Local elections one year before or one
year after general elections are organized together with general
elections." Based on this article, the ruling party can
reschedule the 2015 elections to August 2014, and without any need to
change the Constitution, can automatically postpone local elections
five months later to August.
Well,
what would the ruling party and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
gain from the merging of the three elections cause? In this case,
Erdogan might have the opportunity to shoot several birds with one
stone. For example, the negative effects of such developments as the
Gezi incidents, the stage at which the resolution process stands,
international developments, the economic outlook, and the erosion
after ruling for more than 10 years, will not be experienced in local
elections. He will gain five extra months to make up for a possible
negative picture and can spin the period into a favorable one.
A
possible loss of strength that might come up in the March local
elections, which might create a negative effect on the presidential
elections, will thus be eliminated by a postponement. Besides all
that, Erdogan would hold the authority to determine the candidates
both in local elections and in general elections. He would select the
Mayors and the Deputies - even if it was for the last time - and
would continue maintaining his influence in the party in the
post-election period. If he does not wish to switch places with
President Abdullah Gul in a similar model to the Putin-Medvedev one,
then he can turn the merging of three elections into an advantage.
Most importantly, if he is successful in these elections and obtains
enough seats in Parliament to change the Constitution, then he may
submit the new Constitution, including the presidential system, to
society.
No
doubt, developments unfolding until the fall will show whether this
scenario will be implemented or not. However, in the case that the
ruling party wants to hold three elections simultaneously, then it
has to push the button immediately after the opening of the
Parliament in October, because the March 2014 local elections
calendar will start on December 2013.
In another converse
scenario that is being whispered about in Ankara - but which has a
very low chance of happening - is an "ambush" election in
the fall. There is no such tendency yet in the government or the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), but there are assumptions
elsewhere that the AKP will inevitably have to draw the card of the
"ambush" elections in light of internal and external
developments. It is particularly whispered that problems that might
occur in the solution process of the Kurdish issue could oblige the
government to take an "ambush" election decision.
The
AKP wing excludes both scenarios and says they do not believe either
has any possibility of occurring. They especially reject the
possibility of an ambush election in the fall, but say it is only
"difficult" for the three election merger in 2014, if not
"impossible"...
We
have come to the end of the Constitution Conciliation Commission's
work. The stances of the leaders are important, but after this point
it is an extremely weak possibility that a new Constitution will be
written from scratch with the signatures of the four parties
underneath. Despite this, there has been a new activity going on
recently Instead of forming a Constitution from scratch, the aim is
to prepare a "Constitution Consensus Package." The formula
goes as such: There are nearly 60 clauses regarding fundamental
rights and freedoms that the four parties have agreed upon. If the
presidential system is not included, than 20 more clauses can be
added to it. In this case, a constitutional amendment package of
about 80 clauses bearing the signature of four parties can be
approved.
Executives
of the Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) are discussing the resolution
process with Abdullah Ocalan on Imrali island prison, and with top
names in the Kandil Mountains. According to rumors, several options
including "delaying the withdrawal" are being debated. They
are uncomfortable with the government not taking any steps. On the
other hand, the government is acting slowly, saying: "The
withdrawal has not happened completely."
I
asked an influential Cabinet minister, "When is the package
arriving?" I received the answer that more time was needed. I
have the impression that Erdogan will announce its content in the
next stage, but will leave the submitting of the wide package to
Parliament until after the complete PKK withdrawal.”
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